On the Bratislava real estate market, there are the fewest vacant apartments in new buildings in modern history. If the coronavirus pandemic had not come, the price of new housing would continue due to its shortage. This follows from the latest analysis of the consulting company Bencont Investment.

Towards the end of March 2020 analysts recorded the offer of 1,704 apartments in 84 Bratislava real estate projects. For comparison, at the end of the year 2019 there were 2,047 of them. "More, I 30% the decline in the number of active projects over the last two years is a reflection of the permitting processes, which are stopping a large part of new housing construction in Bratislava," explain analysts from Bencont Investment. The lack of apartments was also reflected in prices. The unit price of the offered properties per square meter increased by 15% year-on-year to the amount of 3,476 Euros. Such a significant increase was due to the sale of affordable projects (Orchards, Bory housing, Sunflowers, GalvaniHOME), but also an increase in prices in the middle segment.

The largest number of apartments were sold in the Bratislava II district.

During the first three months of the year 2020 was sold in total 607 apartments. Almost half of them belonged to Bratislava II district. (Danube Bishoprics, Vrakuňa, Slovakia, Ružinov, Slovakia). The most sold apartments came from the Ovocné sady projects, Galvani's yards, Jége's alley and Nuppu.

Demand exceeds supply

At the same time, the analysts made a model, who estimated, how long the current supply of apartments would last. While in years 2013 – 2014 would be enough for 12 – 20 months, in the year 2015 the demand for apartments began to grow at a faster pace and the supply fell below a critical threshold 12 months. If the bid falls below this threshold, it means, that demand exceeds supply and prices rise. This happened in years 2015 – 2018. The situation took a dramatic turn in the year 2019, when the gap between demand and supply began to widen significantly. The monthly supply was located between 6 – 9 months and the price increase increased to 10 – 15% interannually. Unless the coronavirus pandemic and the crisis come with it, prices would continue to rise. However, analysts do not compare it with the last crisis. They point it out, that ten years ago there was massive construction and real estate prices were disproportionately inflated.

Most apartments are sold "on paper"

According to the analysis, 90% apartments are sold "from paper,", while their completion is planned for 2 - 3 years. "Today, developers do not need to sell off their stock and rather wait with unchanged price lists, until the situation calms down," say the analysts and add, that apartment prices today are only 10% higher than last year 2008, while the average wage increased by more than 35%.

The real estate market will probably function without major changes

Further development will depend on economic development and on that, how Slovakia will manage to return to its original state. "Property sales have slowed down significantly at the moment. However, the reason is not a drop in purchasing power, but the suspension of economic life and the fear of the unknown. If the economy can be restarted in the coming months, the fear of buyers will pass and the real estate market will continue to function without major changes. If there is a drop in prices, with a high probability, only a slight and short-term decrease will be tied to the secondary market and older apartments," assumes Rudolf Bruchánik, chief analyst of Bencont Investment.